Paul Quigley opens the kimono on what’s hiding beneath the skirts of the cognoscenti in tech wearables and asks what are the key technologies being used in WT, the products and apps likely to catch on – and just how big will the market be and which markets will take the lead, whether the current technologies will be future-proofed with other wireless technologies.
Ever since the Sinclair C5 and Swatch The Beep didn’t take the world by storm in both lifestyle and wearble tech respectively, back before the dotcom and tech bubbles drove shares prices as high as a Sixties miniskirt, new yet already worn-out or certainly wearing thin clichés such as tech-togs, gadget-gear, app-flaps, smart-suits and all manner of other such gaudy PR puffery is vying to pump up a wearable tech bubble all over again. But when it comes to wearable tech developments, becoming the latest fashion ‘must-have’ will be a big ask – supplanting the current cult of the Ipad/Iphone, tablet-smartphone cartel. Nevertheless, recent hype surrounding both Galaxy Gear and Google Glass have set the industry on a new path with health & fitness as well as Internet-of-Things (IoT) applications firing the imagination of users and vendors alike. Furthermore, now that search behemoth Google has unveiled plans for sits new Android Wear operating system, partnering with hardware vendors such as Asus, HTC, LG, Motorola and even arch rival Samsung, with the promise of new APIs and product later in 2014, the wearable tech space is about to get very crowded.
However, when it comes to the nascent WT market itself, the actual technologies used while a high priority to the vendors and app developers, to market users, it is of little consequence, according to Saverio Romeo, Principal Analyst at Beecham Research. “Technology will not decide the future of wearable tech. Technology is only a part of the story and the technology vendors and community have
to open their horizons as never before.
According to recent research by industry analyst firm Beecham Research, the wearable tech market is expected to have a market size of US$1.7 billion at year end 2012, excluding earphones and headphones. With a compound annual growth rate of 35 percent, Beecham Research says the key question for the industry is how to move rapidly to harness the strong potential. There are a number of complex issues to consider but the main one is that wearable products are multidisciplinary in nature and therefore there is a need for multidisciplinary thinking; bringing together technology, market, security, aesthetics, ethics and sociology around the same table from the conception of the idea. We see a very excited community in wearable technologies that can get carried away by the wonders of technology and the desires of shiny headlines. They forget business models, security implications, functionalities and more. Ian Reed, Marketing Director at TFT screen vendor Plastic Logic, their estimated global market for wearable technologies could surpass US$8 billion by 2018, with nearly 135 million units shipped. “It is expected that components could account for around 73 percent of the total market by this time, growing from 66.2 percent in 2012.” Beecham’s Romeo believes the WT space will comprise of five key categories that will define the WT space: user interface, energy (in terms of battery), active materials, connectivity (anytime), and sensors. These groups of technologies are becoming cost-effective and more advanced at the same time, while the size of the technology components is moving from macro to nano and even further” he adds.
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According to Beecham Research’s Saveiio Romeo, there are a number of complex issues to consider but the main one is that wearable products are multidisciplinary in nature and therefore there is a need for multidisciplinary thinking; bringing together technology, market, security, aesthetics, ethics and sociology around the same table from the conception of the idea. “We see a very excited community in wearable technologies that can get carried away by the wonders of technology and the desires of shiny headlines. They forget business models, security implications, functionalities and more.” Ian Reed, Marketing Director at TFT screen vendor Plastic Logic, says that their estimated global market for wearable technologies could surpass US$8 billion by 2018, with nearly 135 million units shipped. “It is expected that components could account for around 73 percent of the total market by this time, growing from 66.2 percent in 2012” says Reed. Beecham’s Romeo believes the WT space will comprise of five key categories that will define the WT space: user interface, energy (in terms of battery), active materials, connectivity (anytime), and sensors. “These groups of technologies are becoming cost-effective and more advanced at the same time,” he adds, “while the size of the technology components is moving from macro to nano and even further.”
Findings from a recent major global survey by Accenture (Source: Digital Consumer Tech Survey 2014), revealed which types of devices are most likely to be purchased in the next year. From their survey of 6,000 consumers in Australia, Canada, India, South Africa, the UK, and the USA, 52 percent said they intended to purchase a smartphone in 2014, 40 percent a tablet PC, and 46 percent a smartwatch, with 42 percent planning to invest in Internet-connected eyeglasses. Furthermore, Accenture’s research found that 54 percent of respondents said they were interested in buying a health monitor as either an application on the phone, laptop or desktop or as a dedicated device. Somewhat surprisingly, expected demand for such advanced high tech wearables may not come from the so-called developed economies. According to Accenture’s findings, emerging markets such as India are showing major growth potential. 80 percent of Indian respondents said they were interested in buying fitness monitors, while 76 percent said they would be interested in smart watches and 74 percent would be interested in Internet-enabled eyeglasses.
“The development of smarter sensors that detect temperature, gestures and eye tracking will enable manufacturers to collect user data such as how a person walks or drives, and what they eat” says David Sovie, Managing Director of Accenture Communications, Media and Technology. “Manufacturers will use this to tailor services offered via wearable devices to the individual consumer which will also have an impact on the wearable fitness boom.” The key wireless technologies being used in wearable tech is still open season, with NFC and Bluetooth taking joint pole position in the early stages. “We will see more low power technology” says Dr. Robert Milner, senior consultant at Cambridge Consultants. “A good example of this is Bluetooth smart, which is everywhere. It connects to a range of things simultaneously, is relatively cheap, quite small – effectively an entire app in 1cm squared (sensor, radio, antenna all in one), and it can communicate with smartphones.You can turn Bluetooth smartphone into anything, the earliest example being a pair of basketball shoes which were Bluetooth smart enabled.” According to Milner, Near Field Communication (NFC) shows great potential. “It is essentially a wireless product with an app” he says. “The app delivers a stunning display, connects to internet and I see NFC standing a chance of being in Android smartphones soon.”
But the wearable tech landscape is evolving so rapidly, it’s difficult to predict a long-term outlook, according to Phones 4 U’s Chief Marketing Officer, Scott Hooton. “What we do know is that smart watches are leading the charge in what is still a relatively youthful market. This popularity is driven by smartphone compatibility, with the smartwatch being the logical companion to many handsets.” However, Hooton is wary of over-hyping the immediate prospects of any particular dominant tech. “It’s also unlikely we’ll see wearables overtake smartphones anytime soon” he says. “68 percent of participants in our recent uBar panel claimed it’s vital that wearable tech connects to their smartphone, further proof that consumers primarily see wearables as a way to complement their existing devices.” According to Phones 4 U’s findings, the potential for growth will come via the ‘health and fitness’ sector, fuelled by easy access to fitness apps. “Our uBar survey revealed that 45 percent of participants have already used an app on their smartphone to support their fitness or health goals” adds Phones 4 U’s Hooton. “Wearable and wider smart tech will take this to the next level and we expect to see other sectors start to become more prominent, particularly smart tech used in the home environment and for play.” Danny Young of UK retail tech giant Ebuyer concurs. “Wearable tech that has a fitness angle currently leads the market. Fitness bands, smart pedometers, gym programs and trackers currently sell the most because they are the most reliable and people find them very useful” says Young. “Products that aim to help our health will always be popular. As wearable tech improves it’s likely we will see tech that can monitor our health far more accurately.”
The piece of wearable technology that most people are familiar with is Google Glass, which is designed to offer the uses of a computer in a lightweight design. Although the technology has been met with its fair share of criticism, with critics citing the technology as a form of surveillance that interferes with everyday life. Google Glass weighs around 50g, roughly half the weight of the latest iPhone, and is intended to be worn on a daily basis, without causing discomfort to the user, while offering the same technology as computer systems. In fact, similar systems to Google’s innovative design, such as the Optinvent Ora, are adapted from smartphone technology and data, albeit without phone connectivity. The idea of head-worn computer systems is not in itself revolutionary. Rather, it is development of technology which has made practical devices such as Google Glass possible, which has prompted such a public reaction. Before such technology was available, the idea of a ‘head computer’ was the stuff of sci-fi films; however, now that the method makes it possible to create such devices, manufacturers will be able to improve the function of this technology and explore how they will function in people’s lives. Head-worn computers are by no means the only instance of wearable technology. Wrist-mounted computers and clothing incorporating advanced technology are also developing strength in consumer markets, as designs become more effective and have a higher battery energy capacity and lower wireless radiation levels in proximity to human tissue.
Wearable technology may also see major applications enhancing the retail customer experience. Oliver Ripley, Head of Mobile Products at eCommera, which providers of multi-channel commerce solutions for the likes of Clarins, House of Fraser and T.M. Lewin believes that wearable technology, such as the smart watch concept, opens up some intriguing possibilities as the technology improves and a critical mass of adoption is reached. “Smart watches could capture the imagination of consumers as the perfect way to receive, and view, push notifications of offers” he explains. “There is no need to reach into their pocket or handbag, instead, they can just glance at their watch to view the latest offers, personalised for them and where they are. As they enter a store their watch could guide-them-to-buy with offers based on intelligence of their past purchase history and current interests. And the smart watch will supply all the information necessary for the customer to decide if the offer is worthwhile.” According to Ripley, if the customer then needs more information on the offer, they will be able to communicate to their smart watch by voice instructions, which will then display back to the customer information about where to find the goods on offer, such as department and floor level. “If they decide to take advantage of the offer then they can take the products down to the point of sale terminals and pay for them by waving the smart watch – complete with discount voucher – over the contactless readers. In this scenario, the whole experience in that store would be enhanced, and defined by the retailer, using knowledge about the consumer.”
According to Beecham’s Romeo, their analysis shows there will be three sectors that will drive the wearable device market: lifestyle, glamour and communication. “The three sectors are part of our entire daily life” he says. “What is important is to create fluidity in the value chain. This fluidity can happen only one day if Adidas, for example, will have an innovation partnership, very inclusive, with Telefonica, or Nike with Nokia, or Armani with Google.” In the future, there is also likely to be a shift to wireless technology that runs off ‘harvested energy’, says Cambridge Consultants’ Robert Miilner. “This is likely to happen before batteries get, say 10 times better. This could trigger the adoption of another wireless standard or the extension of an existing one like Bluetooth Smart.” Milner believes that batteries are the most common problem in creating wearable tech. “Battery technology is moving at glacial place compared to other technologies,” he says, “so is problematic. Improving the way your device is powered will be most successful, and technology for harvested energy is improving. However there’s usually a 2 year lag between technology being standardised and it being available in products in the shops” he concludes. Whatever ends up dominating the WT space, whether it becomes a cellular stitch-up, a fashionista fiefdom or a surveillance tech tagging dystopia, remains to be seen. But one thing is certain. Google Y-Fronts anyone?
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Paul Quigley 